Seen the Downturn Headlines?

What's happening in Brisbane

Brisbane had the biggest fall of any capital city in October. Values dropped 2% in a month and 6.1% over three months, and they're now 8.3% below the May peak, according to Cotality’s November Home Value Index. The median Brisbane dwelling is now valued at $1,018,401.

For anyone who bought near the top, that stings. But Brisbane values are still 46.1% higher than they were five years ago. So most long-term owners would still make a healthy profit if they sold today, even if it's not quite the number they had in mind a few months ago.

The biggest drops are in Brisbane's southside suburbs priced between $1.2 million and $1.5 million. Mansfield is down 11.3% to about $1.2 million, Wishart is down 10.4% to about $1.3 million and Stretton is down 10.1% to about $1.5 million. Further out, the falls are much smaller. Redcliffe is down 3.6% and Samford Valley 2.4%, while Forest Hill, just down the range in the Lockyer, and Walloon, out past Ipswich, are both down less than 2%.

Median house values and recent change as reported by 7NEWS Brisbane using Cotality data, November 2026.

And what about Toowoomba?

While Toowoomba went into spring in much better shape than Brisbane, growth here has eased too, which you'd expect with interest rates rising. It's a very different story to Brisbane, though. In its latest Home Value Index, Cotality says the mid-sized capitals, Brisbane included, "are now well and truly in a correction" after six years of extreme growth. Toowoomba hasn't seen anything like those sharp falls. Across the region, the median house sold for $830,000 between August and October, according to Pricefinder. That's 2.4% lower than the three months before, over the same stretch that Brisbane values dropped 6.1%.

The REIQ's latest quarterly figures tell a similar story. Over the June quarter, Toowoomba's median house price rose 3.03% to $850,000, while Brisbane's held flat at $1.48 million. The REIQ's CEO said Toowoomba continues to forge on quite strongly, possibly because buyers were looking for better value outside the south-east corner.

Homes are taking a little longer to sell, though. Across the Toowoomba region, the typical home now takes about 30 days to sell, up from 23 days in May to July. That gives buyers more time to decide, and it's why a well-priced, well-presented home still stands out.

Locally, we're still seeing homes sell in under a fortnight. Those are the ones priced competitively and presented well, where the sellers have met the market where it is and taken our advice on price. So a quick sale isn't impossible, it just takes a willingness to adjust the price, which plenty of sellers are understandably finding hard right now.

If you need to hold firm on your price, homes are still selling. Just be prepared to wait a little longer for the buyer who loves your home to come along.

Toowoomba suburb by suburb

Here's a snapshot of the market right now. It compares house sales from August to October with the three months before.

Toowoomba's top end is still led by Mount Lofty, Middle Ridge and Highfields, where the median house is now above $1.1 million. East Toowoomba isn't far behind, and Rangeville, Kearneys Spring, Centenary Heights and Glenvale sit between about $850,000 and $910,000.

Most suburbs have held steady or moved only a little either way. Highfields, Glenvale, South Toowoomba and Wilsonton Heights are all close to where they were, while Centenary Heights, Darling Heights and North Toowoomba have edged up.

A few suburbs, including Cambooya, Wilsonton and Harristown, have eased more. Across the region's city suburbs as a whole, though, the median house price is down just 0.8%.

Where you do see a bigger swing, like in Mount Lofty, Middle Ridge or Kearneys Spring, it mostly comes down to which homes happened to sell rather than a real change in what homes there are worth. A few big houses selling in one period can move a suburb median a long way.

Median house sale prices, August to October 2026 compared with May to July 2026, from Pricefinder. Some October sales are still being recorded, so these figures may shift a little.

Why Toowoomba and Brisbane aren't moving the same way

Part of it is price. Even after an 11.3% drop, a typical house in Mansfield is still about $1.2 million. That's roughly what the median house costs in Middle Ridge or Highfields, two of Toowoomba's priciest suburbs. When Brisbane buyers start doing those sums, Toowoomba looks like better value, which is the same point the REIQ made.

The pressures are the same on both sides of the range, though. The Reserve Bank lifted rates again in November, its fifth rise this year. Cotality estimates borrowing capacity has dropped about 12%, and banks are reporting investor enquiries down more than 30% since the May federal budget changed the tax rules for established investment properties (ABC). Those things hit a buyer in Glenvale just as hard as one in Wishart.

So the honest picture is this. Toowoomba is cooler than it was in autumn, buyers are more careful, and homes are taking longer to sell. But it went into this downturn with stronger momentum and a lower price point than Brisbane, and so far the numbers reflect that.

What could 2027 look like?

Nobody can promise where prices will land, but the big banks are broadly on the same page. NAB expects prices to bottom out around the middle of 2027. CBA expects the falls to run into 2027 too, with prices starting to lift again once interest rates come down (Real Estate Business).

Those forecasts are mostly about the capital cities. Regional markets have held up much better so far. By the end of October, regional values across Australia were 3.1% below their peak, compared with 8.1% for the capitals, according to Cotality.

Cotality also points to a few things that should stop prices sliding too far. Not enough new homes are being built, people are still moving here, and most people still have jobs. Its best guess is a gradual drift lower rather than a big drop.

For Toowoomba, that's a reasonable place to be heading into a new year. Life doesn't stop for the market either. People still need to upsize, downsize and move for work, and well-priced homes keep selling.

What it means for you

If you're thinking about selling

Buyers can see more homes, and they're comparing closely. A price based on what sold down the street in March might not stack up against what they can buy today. The first few weeks online still bring the most attention, so it pays to get the price and presentation right from the start.

When we appraise a home, we show you the recent sales we'd compare it with and explain why each one is relevant, so the number is built on evidence rather than headlines.

If you own an investment property

Rental yields have been creeping up as values ease. Cotality's October figures put the gross rental yield for regional Queensland at 4.3%, compared with 3.7% in Brisbane. The tax changes from the budget start applying to established investment properties next year, so it's worth a chat with your accountant about what they mean for you.

If you're just keeping an eye on things

The news covers averages across whole cities. Your suburb, your street and your type of home can be doing something quite different, so look at what's sold near you recently and how long it took. Even better, ask us to put you in touch with the agent who specialises in your area. They'll have all the latest sales on hand.

Questions people are asking

Headlines are written about whole cities. Your decision is about one home, in one street. If you'd like to see how yours sits in today's market, we'll walk you through the sales we'd compare it with.

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General information only and current as at November 2026. This isn't financial or legal advice. For advice specific to your situation, please speak with a qualified professional. Market figures are from third-party sources (Cotality, Pricefinder, the REIQ and bank forecasts reported in the media). Forecasts are opinions, not guarantees, and different providers measure medians in different ways.